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Henry Schein 2014 Guidance Unchanged

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By on Consumer Staples, S&P 500

On Tuesday Henry Schein reported first-quarter non-GAAP EPS of $1.18, which topped our estimate and the consensus by 5 cents. Relative to our model, Henry Schein reported higher revenue growth (1.4 cents) and stronger gross margin, which were offset by higher SG&A expenses (net 1.4 cent benefit). Items below the line contributed another 2.7 cent benefit relative to our model. Management maintained 2014 EPS guidance at $5.29 to $5.39 (up 7% to 9%).

As a result, we expect to keep our 2014 EPS estimate at $5.37 (up 9%) and our 2015 estimate at $5.91 (up 10%). We maintain our Outperform rating on Henry Schein given the defensive and predictable nature of the company’s businesses and consistent execution, which allow for solid growth during even challenging environments, including the challenging weather in the United States this quarter. However, we continue to be valuation sensitive on Henry Schein given that the stock is trading at the top end of its three- and five-year multiple ranges. Key Points Dental. Global dental was up 3.5% on an organic constant-dollar basis in the quarter, which beat our estimate of 3.1%. The North American dental segment increased 3.6% on an organic constant-dollar basis, compared with our estimate of 3.3%. Organic growth was driven by an impressive 16% growth in equipment after a decline last quarter.

We were quite pleased by the strong growth and suspect it was driven by the company’s digital offerings. We look for more detail on Tuesday’s call to better understand the drivers of the outperformance. In international dental, organic growth was 3.3%, which was above our 2.9% estimate. The 230-basis-point beat for the quarter is an encouraging sign for Europe as it has struggled to gain momentum over the last few years. Organic growth in the quarter was the highest in two years, which was encouraging. We are pleased by the solid growth in the global dental business, although on an absolute basis the trend is still below historical norms, in our view. Vet and medical business. Global medical was up 2.0% on an organic constant-dollar basis in the quarter, compared with our 2.1% target. North American medical segment growth was 2.0% on an internal, constant-dollar basis, in line with our estimate.

Commentary suggested that traction with large group practices and IDNs is good. This has been an area of competitive differentiation for Henry Schein for the past few years. Turning to vet, global animal health was up 2.0% in the quarter, which was below our 3.6% target as a result of slower growth in North America. North American animal health revenues declined 0.4% as a result of weather-related challenges and came in well below our 5.8% growth estimate. International vet revenue increased 4.2%, beating our estimate of 1.7%—a signal that Europe might be firming.

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