Changes in gold prices causing a split in survey participants

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By Mark Michaels on August 18, 2014 Economy

With 37 participants in the Kitco News, 20 responded to the survey this week. Keeping those 20 in mind, 8 see high prices while the other 8 lower prices thus leaving 4 neutral or trading somewhere sideways. The market includes investment banks, bullion dealers and future traders who are all eyeing the situation at hand. The split in the thought process of all the parties in the Kitco News Gold Survey shows participants are both bearish and bullish. This dilemma has got the market talking about where gold prices are headed. Stability should be brought into the market as this ambiguity may result in losses for some who remain in doubt about their investments in gold. Last week many participants went bullish for the current week. Survey respondents that went with higher prices consider that gold prices will once again rise with the help of geopolitical concerns. The chairman and CEO, Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management said that geopolitical pressures have decreased in the past few days however it would be foolish to think that they would not increase again somewhere in the near future. Specific measures should be taken to avoid uncertainty that may cause losses to companies that deal with gold. Survey participants who supported weaker gold prices said that their predictions are based on relief in political tension along with the improvement in the US economic structure; they believe both these factors will have an impact on next week’s gold prices. This decrease in gold price may increase its demand in the market which may bring good news for some and raise concerns for others. The senior marketing strategist, Phil Streible of RJO Futures stated that Russia is trying to make a peaceful situation, Israel is undergoing a ceasefire and Iraq is redesigning its leadership. Therefore he thinks that geopolitical risks are decreasing which may push gold prices further down. Increase of decrease, with such occurrences happening across the globe the gold prices are bound to change and go up or lower. Other participants have pointed out the problems gold face whenever it attempts to pass its value of $1,320 per ounce. This Friday, gold did not go so well after the biggest gains per week in the stocks in the European region, which was the largest since February’s mid in 2014. These inconsistent changes in gold prices are being observed and followed keenly throughout the world with people commenting on where the gold market is headed. The head of commodity strategy in Saxo Bank, Ole Hanson believes that if gold closes at a value less than $1295 then it will create a negative impact in the marketplace. This may cause problems for dealers and investors. Neutral participants have stated that they expect the gold to stay within the boundaries of $1,280-$1,320 in the current year. They seem to be firm in this statement and expect that they will not be disappointed. It will be interesting to see how the investors handle this uncertainty and contrast in opinions of the survey participants.